Super El Niño projected to cause up to 450,000 deaths over the next six months
August 2026 was the warmest August on record globally, and there is little doubt that Earth’s climate is changing.
Now, researchers are issuing another chilling warning — and this time, the potential death toll could reach a staggering 450,000 people.
Nearly half a million people could die as a result of the current Super El Niño weather event, according to a new scientific report warning of the deadly consequences of soaring temperatures around the world.
The study, led by Professor Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, estimates that as many as 451,000 additional deaths could occur because of extreme heat linked to the powerful climate phenomenon.
While the number is difficult to comprehend, Greenstone stressed that the figure represents real people and families.
”The estimate of 451,000 people is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives,” he said.
According to the researchers’ projections, the deaths could occur between September 2026 and February 2027, with the effects potentially continuing into July next year.
Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, India and Sudan are expected to be among the countries facing the greatest impact. The United States alone could see around 3,500 additional deaths if the projections prove accurate.
50 million more people facing acute hunger
Super El Niño events occur when ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific become significantly warmer than normal, disrupting atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns across the globe.
The consequences can be severe, with different regions experiencing everything from extreme heat and drought to flooding and wildfires.
El Niño could also put further pressure on food supplies. The World Food Programme warned in August that the weather pattern could leave around 50 million more people facing acute hunger while also driving food prices higher.
History offers a grim reminder of how devastating El Niño can be. During the powerful 1877–78 event, drought and famine contributed to more than 50 million deaths, with India, Brazil and China among the hardest-hit regions.
The alarming estimate was produced by combining projections for temperatures during the current El Niño with decades of data on heat-related deaths.
Greenstone and his colleagues examined the month-by-month relationship between temperature and additional heat deaths across 24,378 regions worldwide. They then compared those findings with projected temperatures and average heat-related mortality between 1996 and 2025.
Researchers behind the report say there are still ways to reduce the human toll, particularly through better emergency planning and targeted interventions.
“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year,” shared report co-author Dr Tamma Carleton at the University of California, Berkeley. “But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency. We need to mobilise now to design, deploy and evaluate the tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”
The warning comes as scientists increasingly focus on how natural climate patterns such as El Niño interact with a warming planet.
Imperial College London Professor Friederike Otto told The Guardian that the current event is particularly concerning because it is occurring against a much hotter baseline.
“The [current El Niño] event is a huge redistribution of energy in the climate system and is dangerous, because it is unfolding on top of a much warmer, human-influenced climate system.
“So, in many places around the world we will see never-before-experienced heat extremes, with all their consequences on health, food security and water stress.
“El Niño comes and goes, but as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels, it occurs on an increasingly hotter baseline, making it much more difficult for communities to deal with the consequences.”
With warnings like these becoming harder to ignore, the big question is what happens next.
How seriously should we be taking the threat of extreme heat — and are governments doing enough to prepare for what could lie ahead?
What do you think?